First off, this is pretty cool! I've done a similar thing (

viewtopic.php?f=43&t=26375), but it's a lot more unwieldy as it's literally just a chart showing everything at the same time, while you've made it filterable/sortable and everything. Well done!

jdixon41 wrote:if someone has a 1+ AS, even though they still fail on a 1, does our Armor piercing attacks only bring it up to 2+ effectively doing nothing?

Yep. That is literally the only advantage to having a 1+ Armour Save as opposed to a 2+. AP and S4 still get you a 2+ ASv.

jdixon41 wrote:wardsave of the opponent (in retrospect I shouldn't have included this but I filtered out the results of the full chart to only show 6+. This only changes the arrow choice in extreme corner case situations so can safely be ignored when deciding on arrows

Forgive me if I'm reading this wrong, but how can a Ward Save change the decision on what type of

Enchanted Arrow to take? Other than Regeneration, a Ward Save has the same effect on every type, doesn't it? I.e. a 4+ Ward Save against Hagbane Tips should stop exactly half the Wounds, but it should stop half the Wounds on anything else too. So, now you'd be looking at every value divided by two. To me, it seems like that doesn't affect the relative position of which

Arrows are the best.

jdixon41 wrote:Base Swiftshiver - str 3, -1 to hit, 2 shots (i did it something like this: Probability of wounding = 1 - ((1 - (toHit * toWound * toArmorSave * toWardSave)) ^ 2), statisticians, is this correct?)

Now, I'm not exactly a statistician (though I am an engineering student

), but this formula can't be right. If you take toHit, toWound, toArmorSave and toWardSave as all being somewhere between 2 and 6, then your

probability of wounding would be between -224 (when all the above are 2) and -1677024 (when all the above are 6). Unless I'm reading it wrong that is. Maybe toHit is not the same as HitRoll? Are you using toHit as 2/3 in the case of a 3+ then?

If so - it is more logical; after all you can't go above 1 or below 0 with

probability - then I think you are just making it difficult for yourself. I don't think that it needs anything being squared, but that could be me getting confused as well. The way I did it is:

To Hit: 2 shots each, so multiply the To Hit-

probability per model by 2. If they are hitting on 3+ (which becomes 4+ because of the -1 penalty for Multiple Shots), they would normally hit 50% (0,5) of the time. Because of the two shots, that is now 100% (1 - okay, because of this multiplying by 2 you can actually go above 1 here, but not above 2).

To Wound: This is just the regular continuing of the chain. If they would wound on 3+ (against T2), that translates to wounding 2/3 of the time. So, the rolling total is 1*(2/3) = 0,67, or 67%.

Unsaved Wounds: Again, just the same thing. a natural 4+ Armour Save (which is modified to a 5+ because of AP) and a 6+ Ward Save, for example, would mean you are getting 2/3 of your Wounds through their Armour, and 5/6 of those through their Ward. So, the final total is now: 1*(2/3)*(2/3)*(5/6) = 0,37, or 37%.

It seems your result comes close to that (33,6%) but is off a little bit. Unless, that is, I'm doing it wrong of course!